JPMorgan Predicts 2026 Tax Refund Surge

Tax season 2026 could look very different. According to a new JPMorgan research report, U.S. taxpayers are expected to see larger-than-usual refunds, averaging $3,743 per filer.

This refund surge comes as a result of ongoing withholding levels under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which reshaped withholding tables but delayed certain offsetting changes until tax year 2026.

For CPAs, financial planners, and businesses, this development could shift both tax workflows and broader economic dynamics.

What’s Driving the Refund Surge?

Why It Matters

For Tax Professionals

For the Economy

For Businesses

What’s Next?

The IRS has confirmed that withholding tables will be updated for tax year 2026, likely bringing refunds back down to historical averages, following a 2025 season that already ran higher than usual despite operational hurdles, alongside the IRS's latest refund timing and processing updates for 2026.

Tax professionals fielding client refund questions can lean on a 2026 refund-tracking playbook to stay ahead of the surge. In the meantime, tax professionals should:

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