Will Nevada health insurance premiums increase if Obamacare tax credits expire?

Nevada residents could soon face higher health insurance premiums if key Obamacare premium tax credits expire at the end of 2025. These tax credits, established under the Affordable Care Act (ACA), have helped lower health coverage costs for millions of Americans, including thousands of Nevadans.

At present, more than 100,000 Nevada residents receive these credits through Nevada Health Link, the state’s ACA marketplace. However, unless Congress acts to extend them, the credits will disappear, and average marketplace premiums in Nevada could rise by about $76 per month.

This issue directly affects household budgets, small-business benefit planning, and state-level health coverage trends. Here’s what is happening, why it matters, and how Nevada taxpayers and employers can prepare.

What’s Happening

The American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) in 2021 and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in 2022 temporarily expanded ACA premium tax credits. These laws increased financial assistance for individuals and families purchasing insurance through exchanges such as Nevada Health Link.

The expansion made significant changes:

• Households earning more than 400 percent of the federal poverty line became eligible for subsidies for the first time.

• Existing credit amounts increased, making monthly premiums more affordable.

• Enrollment rose across Nevada as more residents qualified for assistance.

However, these enhancements were written to last only a few years. If Congress does not renew the law by the end of 2025, the system will revert to the older, less generous subsidy formula.

According to The Nevada Independent (October 18, 2025):

• Marketplace premiums in Nevada could increase by an average of $76 per month.

• Up to 60,000 residents could lose some or all of their subsidy eligibility.

• Enrollment could decline as affordability worsens, especially in rural counties where options are already limited.

This would reverse years of progress in expanding coverage access across the state.

Why It Matters for Nevadans

1. Tax Credit Eligibility and Reconciliation

For tax professionals, the potential expiration of these credits introduces several planning challenges. CPAs will need to carefully review Form 8962 (Premium Tax Credit) calculations for affected clients.

If the expanded credits end:

• Some taxpayers could lose eligibility and be required to repay advance premium tax credits at filing time.

• Income projections for 2025 and 2026 will need updating to avoid unexpected tax bills.

• Clients may need guidance on how to manage estimated income and adjust household size calculations that affect credit eligibility.

Self-employed individuals, gig workers, and small-business owners who rely on marketplace coverage should start reviewing their 2026 income estimates now.

2. Impact on Employers and Small Businesses

Small-business owners who rely on the individual marketplace to help employees secure affordable coverage could also face challenges.

If premiums increase significantly:

• Employers who do not offer traditional group insurance may find that employees struggle to maintain coverage.

• Companies may need to explore Qualified Small Employer HRAs (QSEHRAs) or Individual Coverage HRAs (ICHRAs) to offer tax-advantaged reimbursement options.

• Businesses with existing health stipends or reimbursement programs may have to adjust benefit amounts to help offset rising premium costs.

For industries that depend heavily on part-time or seasonal workers, such as hospitality, tourism, and retail, these higher costs could affect employee retention and satisfaction.

3. Broader Economic and Public Health Effects

The expiration of these ACA tax credits has implications that go beyond taxes and insurance. Economically, Nevada could experience a ripple effect if thousands of residents lose coverage or face higher costs.

Health policy experts warn that:

• Nevada’s uninsured rate could rise after years of steady decline.

• Hospitals and clinics could see an increase in uncompensated care, raising costs for everyone with insurance.

• Families might reduce discretionary spending to afford higher premiums, slowing local economic activity.

The Nevada Department of Health and Human Services has emphasized that maintaining the credits is crucial to preventing these negative outcomes. The department notes that the credits have played a key role in stabilizing the state’s health system and improving coverage equity among lower-income residents.

What’s Next

Congressional Outlook

As of mid-October 2025, discussions are ongoing in Congress about extending the enhanced ACA premium tax credits through at least 2028. Both parties have expressed support for affordability measures, but broader federal budget negotiations have slowed progress. No extension bill has yet advanced beyond committee.

State-Level Developments

Nevada lawmakers and regulators are calling for swift federal action. The Silver State Health Insurance Exchange, which runs Nevada Health Link, has already begun preparing educational campaigns to alert residents about potential premium changes for 2026.

Steps for Taxpayers and Businesses

• Review 2025 and 2026 coverage options early. Evaluate plan costs and subsidies before open enrollment begins.

• Consult your CPA or tax advisor. They can project how the expiration may affect your tax return or premium payment structure.

• Evaluate health benefit strategies. Employers should compare the cost of HRAs, group plans, or other tax-advantaged benefits.

• Stay informed. Monitor IRS announcements, Nevada Health Link updates, and congressional actions through trusted tax and financial news sources.

  
  

Conclusion

The possible expiration of enhanced Obamacare premium tax credits could lead to higher health insurance premiums for thousands of Nevada residents. The average increase of $76 per month would impact household budgets, small-business benefit planning, and overall economic stability in the state.

For CPAs, tax attorneys, and business owners, the key is to prepare early. Updating income projections, evaluating benefit structures, and keeping clients informed will help avoid costly surprises.

Staying proactive today ensures smoother transitions tomorrow.

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